Happy New Year from The Realty Group Team! As we step into 2024, I want to share what I'm seeing in our Central Virginia market and what I believe the coming months hold for buyers, sellers, and investors. After a turbulent couple of years with pandemic-driven booms, rate shocks, and inventory crunches, there are real signs that our market is finding its footing. Let me walk you through the data.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand Heading Into 2024
Let's address the elephant in the room first. Mortgage rates climbed steadily through 2023, hitting peaks in the high 7% range by October. As we enter 2024, most forecasters were hoping for meaningful rate relief, but I want to be straightforward with you: rates are expected to remain in the high 6s to low 7s for at least the first half of the year. The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts later in 2024, but "later" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.
What does this mean practically? A buyer purchasing a $350,000 home with 10% down at 6.75% is looking at a monthly principal and interest payment of roughly $2,043. Compare that to the sub-3% rates of 2021, when that same purchase would have run about $1,328 per month. That's a $715 difference, and it's real money. But here's the thing I keep telling my clients: rates in the 6-7% range are historically normal. The anomaly was 3%, not 7%.
County-by-County Price Outlook for 2024
Central Virginia continues to offer remarkable value compared to the broader Mid-Atlantic market. Here's where I see median home prices trending this year:
| Area | 2024 Projected Median | Property Tax Rate (per $100) |
|---|---|---|
| Bedford County | $350,000 - $380,000 | $0.53 |
| Lynchburg City | $250,000 - $280,000 | Varies by neighborhood |
| Roanoke City | $260,000 - $300,000 | Varies |
| Franklin County | $280,000 - $340,000 | $0.43 |
| Campbell County | $240,000 - $280,000 | $0.73 |
| Pittsylvania County | $200,000 - $250,000 | $0.63 |
Bedford County remains our strongest performer, driven by the Smith Mountain Lake waterfront market, the desirability of Forest-area schools, and continued demand from out-of-state relocators. The $0.53 per $100 property tax rate makes Bedford one of the most affordable counties in the state from a tax perspective, which is a significant draw for retirees and remote workers moving from higher-tax areas.
Inventory: Better, But Don't Pop the Champagne Yet
The single biggest challenge in our market over the past three years has been inventory. We simply haven't had enough homes for sale to meet demand. Heading into 2024, I'm seeing a modest inventory increase compared to 2023, but we're still at historically low levels.
Why aren't more homes hitting the market? The answer is what economists call the "lock-in effect." Homeowners who locked in 3% mortgages in 2020-2021 have no financial incentive to sell and buy at 7%. They're effectively trapped in their current homes, even if those homes no longer fit their needs. A family that outgrew their three-bedroom in Forest would love to upgrade to a four-bedroom, but doing so means nearly doubling their monthly payment even if the home price is similar.
I expect this dynamic to ease slightly as life events (job changes, divorces, growing families, estate settlements) naturally force some sellers into the market. But a dramatic inventory surge? That's not in the cards for 2024.
Seasonal Patterns to Watch
Central Virginia has predictable seasonal patterns, and understanding them gives buyers and sellers a real edge:
- January: The slowest month. Average days on market stretch to 45, and prices hit their annual low. This is actually a terrific time for buyers willing to brave the cold and negotiate.
- Spring (March-May): The market wakes up. Expect a 5-7% price premium over winter listings. Sellers, this is your window.
- June: Historically our peak month. Highest prices and fastest sales at around 25 days on market.
- Fall: A second mini-surge as families want to settle before the holidays.
If you're a buyer reading this in January, you're actually in a strong position right now. Less competition, more motivated sellers, and room to negotiate. If you're a seller planning to list, aim for late March through May to maximize your return.
The Caesars Virginia Factor
One of the most exciting economic developments for our region is the Caesars Virginia casino resort in Danville. The temporary casino opened on May 15, 2023, and the full $650 million resort is on track for a late 2024 opening. We're talking about 1,300 permanent jobs, a 500-room hotel, a full-service spa, convention center, and multiple dining venues.
What does a casino mean for real estate? Jobs. And jobs mean housing demand. Pittsylvania County and the greater Danville area are already seeing increased interest from workers relocating for casino employment. I've worked with several buyers in the past six months who are moving to the area specifically for Caesars-related positions, from management roles to hospitality and food service.
Investors take note: Pittsylvania County's $0.63 per $100 tax rate and relatively low entry prices ($200,000-$250,000 median) make it one of the most attractive investment corridors in Central Virginia right now.
First-Time Buyer Programs That Make 2024 Accessible
Despite higher rates, first-time buyers have more program options than many realize:
- FHA Loans: 3.5% down with credit scores as low as 580. This is still the most popular first-time buyer product I see in our market.
- VA Loans: Zero down payment for eligible veterans and active-duty military. With Liberty University and the National Guard presence in our area, I work with VA buyers regularly.
- VHDA (Virginia Housing Development Authority): Down payment assistance grants and below-market rate programs specifically designed for Virginia buyers. The VHDA Plus Second Mortgage can provide up to 2-2.5% of the purchase price for down payment and closing costs.
- USDA Rural Development: Zero down payment for homes in eligible rural areas, and a surprising number of Bedford County, Franklin County, and Amherst County properties qualify.
A first-time buyer purchasing a $260,000 home in Lynchburg with an FHA loan needs as little as $9,100 down. Combine that with seller concessions for closing costs (which I'm successfully negotiating in this market), and the barrier to entry is lower than most people think.
My Predictions for 2024
Here's where I'll put my neck out:
- Prices: Modest appreciation of 3-5% across most of Central Virginia. No crash, no boom. Healthy, sustainable growth.
- Rates: Staying in the high 6s to low 7s through at least mid-year, with potential for high 5s to low 6s by Q4 if the Fed follows through on rate cuts.
- Inventory: Gradually improving but still below pre-pandemic norms. Expect 15-20% more listings than 2023, which sounds like a lot until you realize 2023 was historically low.
- Best value areas: Pittsylvania County (Caesars effect), Campbell County (Lynchburg proximity at lower taxes), and Amherst County (scenic beauty at entry-level prices).
- Smith Mountain Lake: Continued strong demand for waterfront properties, with lakefront homes appreciating faster than the broader market.
What This Means for You
If you're thinking about buying in 2024, don't wait for the "perfect" rate. Rates may come down, and if they do, you can refinance. But prices aren't coming down in Central Virginia. Every month you wait is a month of appreciation you're paying for instead of building equity in.
If you're thinking about selling, the spring market is going to be competitive for listings in good condition and priced correctly. Homes that are outdated or overpriced will sit, but move-in-ready properties in desirable areas like Forest, Moneta, and Lynchburg's Boonsboro corridor will still generate strong interest.
And if you're an investor, I want to talk to you about the opportunities I'm seeing in the short-term rental market around Smith Mountain Lake and the emerging Danville corridor. The numbers are compelling, and I have the local knowledge to help you find the right property.
Whatever your real estate goals are for 2024, I'd love to be your guide. Reach out to me or anyone on The Realty Group Team. We know this market inside and out because we live here, we raise our families here, and we genuinely love helping people find their place in Central Virginia.
Teresa Grant is the Team Lead of The Realty Group Team at Keller Williams in Central Virginia. For a personalized market consultation, call our office or visit therealtygrouponline.com.